The Baucus Bill

First, a little stock music: as was pointed out in this Metafilter comment, Humana, Aetna, Cigna and UnitedHealth all had a stock gain of more than 3.5% after Senator Max Baucus announced his bill.

I waited most of the day to write about this because I was honestly not sure how the bill would sort out, and I wanted to look at the Chairman's Mark (Baucus' first draft of the bill for negotiation) myself before I jumped in all aggravated with the riot elbow. I've been pretty sure for the last two months that whoever Baucus is representing, it's not Americans -- but this bill seems, all in all, to be pretty clear proof. A rundown:

An insurance mandate for individuals. That means that if you don't buy insurance, you'll be fined by the federal government. This is a major money-maker for insurance industries, who want federal laws to force new customers into the market. Democrats should hate it because it punishes people who are already lower-middle class and have it hard enough; Republicans should hate it because it's a government intrusion into something that should probably be an individual decision.

The free-rider policy. This forces businesses who employ individuals receiving government health insurance services (i.e. Medicaid or other subsidized health services) to pay a fee towards defraying that cost. Ezra Klein has been excoriating it all day -- for the simple reason that it makes businesses less likely to hire low-income employees. If you could hire a high school kid for $7.25 an hour or a mother of three for $8 an hour (because her children are Medicaid recipients), which would you do? This policy expressly reinforces the cycle of poverty. Whether you're on the left or the right, it's a loser.

An end to the use of pre-existing conditions as a means by which insurance companies can deny insurance. This is a good thing, but the insurance companies are likely to raise rates to counteract lost profits caused by having to actually insure sick people. Call it a wash: we'll get more, but it'll come out of our pockets, not out of the insurance companies'.

Medicaid and Medicare expansion and subsidies. This is the bill's method of addressing what drives much of our desire for reform -- the tens of millions of uninsured Americans left out of our current system. It's also, I think, President Obama's key demand: insure the uninsured, and increase national health. The question is how much we will pay to get this, and how we'll do it; Senate Republicans have treated almost any expenditure in this direction as completely nonnegotiably unacceptable. I would also point out, to opponents of the public option, that in its absence what we are getting is an expansion of the considerably more government-centric single payer system that is Medicaid and Medicare.

No cost containment. This is President Obama's other big request -- a way by which we can slow or stop the double-digit yearly increases in health costs that are throttling industry and household finances. A public option -- government competition -- is the best way to control these costs; in its absence, many have suggested regulations on executive pay, profit-taking, coverage maximums, or other insurance industry mechanisms that enrich individuals at the expense of the country. The Baucus plan has neither -- and in this respect, fails entirely to get to the root of the problem. This is why the bill is so popular with the insurance industry and its stockholders: it maintains the gravy train, as is pointed out in this NYT "Room for Debate" brief.


All in all, as much as I want some kind of reform, I can't get behind this bill, which is why I'm glad, I guess, that it has no Republican support (and, as 538.com points out with much better prose, not much Democratic support, either). Back to work, Senators.